Real Estate Decision Model

Sell or Hold?

A side-by-side projection of selling your building and investing the proceeds versus collecting rent and reinvesting after-tax cash flow.

Inputs

Building value

Sale tax rate

Annual rent

CapEx reserve

Rent tax rate

S&P 500 return

Building appreciation

Years to project

yrs

Include building value in Option 2

Option 1: Sell Now

$34.03M

at year 30

Option 2: Keep & Rent

$25.25M

at year 30

Crossover

Year 16

lines cross here

Net Worth Projection

At year 30, the verdict

Sell Now wins by $8.78M. The crossover happens at year 16.

Caveats: this model excludes property management costs, vacancy, mortgage leverage, depreciation tax shield, capital gains on the eventual sale of the building in Option 2, 1031 exchanges, and step-up basis. It also assumes constant returns and tax rates. Use as a directional tool, not a final answer. Talk to a CPA before deciding.